HIGOECS-HIGO代购商城

2026-01-12
HIGO代购商城

China Market Report, January 2026

In January 2026, China's overall market maintained a start-of-year momentum characterized by rising consumption, steady investment growth, a strong stock market, and structural upgrading. The combined effects of pre-holiday demand and policy dividends drove standout performance in service consumption and high-end manufacturing. Inflation saw a moderate rebound, while export resilience remained evident. Below is the core data and analysis by sector, covering the period up to January 12 (with partial data from early January or the New Year's Day holiday).

I. Macroeconomy and Policies

Consumption: The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to grow by 8.2% year-on-year in January, with the share of service consumption rising to 45%. Necessity consumption increased by 6%, and discretionary consumption grew by 12%. During the New Year's Day holiday, domestic tourist trips reached 142 million, generating total tourism revenue of RMB 84.789 billion. Scenic spot ticket bookings surged by over 400% year-on-year.

Investment: Investment in new infrastructure (5G, computing power, UHV power transmission) rose by 18% year-on-year. A total of RMB 62.5 billion in national subsidies was disbursed ahead of schedule, and the policy of trade-in for consumer goods boosted consumption of green and smart products.

Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December (a 34-month high), with core CPI at 1.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded month-on-month growth for three consecutive months, and prices of industrial basic products increased across the entire supply chain.

Policies: The scope of trade-in subsidies was expanded to include digital, intelligent, and elderly-friendly products. The proportion of medium- and long-term funds entering the market was raised, with such funds holding approximately RMB 23 trillion in circulating A-share market capitalization by the end of 2025.

II. Highlights of the Consumer Market

Sector Core Data Characteristics

Cultural Tourism & Travel Cross-regional trips reached 595 million during the New Year period; Spring Festival air ticket bookings increased by about 20% year-on-year. Ticket bookings for popular destinations such as Haikou and Sanya surged by 50%-120% year-on-year. Post-90s and post-00s generations were the main consumer groups. Search volumes for immersive experiences and customized makeup services skyrocketed.

Home Appliances & Furniture Driven by trade-in policies and national subsidies, the average unit price of home appliances increased. Smart home appliances and elderly-friendly furniture were top sellers. Subsidies combined with store discounts led to price cuts of over 25% for some high-end models.

Retail Upgrading The market share of domestic brands expanded. Discretionary consumption sectors such as beauty and apparel outperformed necessity consumption. The share of service consumption continued to rise. Consumption shifted from material satisfaction to spiritual experience, with both average unit price and purchase volume on the rise.

III. Capital Market Performance

Stock Market: As of January 12, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,165.29 points, with daily trading volume exceeding RMB 1 trillion on multiple occasions in the year. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,789.92 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,366.91 points. Growth sectors and non-bank financials led the gains.

Capital Flow: Public offering funds expected to enter the market in 2026 are estimated to exceed RMB 45 billion. Individual investors accounted for over 90% of ETF holdings, and the share of actively managed funds stopped declining and began to rebound.

Share Unlockings: In the week ending January 12, 29 stocks had restricted shares unlocked, with a total market value of approximately RMB 48.867 billion. Zhongke Lanxun topped the list in terms of unlocked market value.

IV. Industry and Exports

High-end Manufacturing: The output of industrial robots increased by 25% year-on-year in January. Export volumes of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic modules rose by 30% and 22% respectively, with high-end manufacturing contributing 32% to economic growth.

Exports: Exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative maintained growth momentum. Export orders picked up, and the export structure continued to optimize.

Capacity Utilization Rate: Capacity utilization rates in some sectors (e.g., soda ash) rose seasonally, while rates in steel and petrochemical industries remained low, reflecting prominent pre-holiday seasonal characteristics.

V. Risks and Outlook

Key Risks: The vitality of the private economy needs to be enhanced; consumption confidence recovery is uneven; potential impacts of global demand fluctuations on exports remain.

Short-term Outlook: Consumption and travel demand will remain robust before the Spring Festival, and the "Spring Festival Rally" in the A-share market is expected to continue. Growth sectors (TMT, military industry, new energy) and price-increasing chains (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, electronic chemicals) are likely to become focus areas.

Medium-to-long-term Outlook: Consumption upgrading, high-end manufacturing, and new infrastructure will serve as the core engines of economic growth. Sustained policy support is expected to further unleash domestic demand.